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Please join the ÈâÂþÎÝ Furman Center for a presentation:

How Real Estate Responds to Regulatory Changes Over the Long Run:

Evidence from the Closure of Hong Kong's Downtown Airport

with
 

Jingwen Zheng
PhD Candidate

City governments increasingly view relaxing building height limits, or "upzoning," as a key strategy to promote compact and affordable cities, yet evidence on its effectiveness is mixed. To evaluate the determinants of upzoning effectiveness, Zheng studies two distinct upzoning events in urban Hong Kong. In 1989, the city implemented the first modest upzoning along a newly narrowed flight path to the downtown airport. In 1998, following the closure of the downtown airport, the city undertook the second, large-scale upzoning, which is one of the largest in history worldwide.

Zheng’s spatial regression discontinuity design at upzoning borders before and after each upzoning event yields three key findings about developers' responses over the course of three decades. First, the modest upzoning did not elicit a strong supply response in urban areas where building height limits were binding. Second, in response to the large-scale upzoning, within a decade, developers closed the initial gaps in building height, volume, and quality between the two sides of the upzoning borders. Third, developers deferred maintenance and investment before the airport closure, as evidenced by a rapid deterioration in flat quality, suggesting they anticipated the larger upzoning. This anticipation likely moderated their response to the first modest upzoning and accelerated the convergence of the built environment after the second. These results indicate that in a rapidly growing city, upzoning can drive vertical development and housing supply in areas where zoning is binding. However, its effectiveness depends on the extent of upzoning and developers' expectations of future zoning changes.

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Date: Monday, September 22, 2025

Time: 12:00 - 1:00 PM

Location: Furman Hall, Room 334
245 Sullivan Street
New York, NY 10012

A light lunch will be provided for in-person attendees.

Seating is limited. Virtual attendees are welcome to .

About the Presenter:

Jingwen Zheng is a PhD candidate in Public Policy at George Washington University, specializing in urban and real estate economics and program evaluation. Her research explores how urban policies—such as land use regulations, slum clearance, and affordable housing programs—shape the built environment, socioeconomic trends, and real estate markets over time. Her work has been supported by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, the Institute of Humane Studies, and AREUEA. Previously, she worked at the World Bank on urban development evaluations and at the Gates Foundation on policy advisory projects in developing countries.